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Abduction Theories

Page history last edited by Administrator 10 years, 4 months ago

 

 

By Members of the StoptheMyths forum

Update

 

On 14th October, 2013, DCI Andy Redwood announced on Crimewatch UK, that the man seen by Jane Tanner had now come forward and been eliminated as the abductor of Madeleine McCann.  They also confirmed that Jane Tanner's description of the man had been uncannily accurate.  

 

Read more.

 

As a result of Jane Tanner's sighting being eliminated, this presents a much larger window of opportunity for an abductor to enter the McCann apartment and take Madeleine.

 

The explanations offered below for the gap between the two sightings are therefore less relevant.

 

 

 

 

Introduction

There is much discussion in the public domain about the disappearance of Madeleine McCann.  Most of this discussion involves the attack and counter-attack of Madeleine’s parents and their possible involvement in a variety of conspiracies with regard to their daughter’s disappearance.  What little discussion there is about an abductor(s) is vague and currently unstructured.

 

The objective of this page is to present a cohesive abduction theory to demonstrate how this is the most straightforward and likely explanation for Madeleine McCann’s disappearance.

 

Assumptions

There were two entirely independent sightings which were uncannily similar.  We are working on the assumption that these were of the same man and that he was carrying Madeleine McCann. 

 

Note - Jane Tanner and the Smith family reported their sightings to the police independently.  Neither knew about the other's sighting until several months later.

 

From Kate McCann’s book “Madeleine” HB p 371:-

 

 

Jane Tanner

Smith Family

Date and time of sighting

3 May 2007 approx 9.15pm

3 May 2007 approx 10pm

Location

Rue Dr Agostinho da Silva, Praia da Luz

Rue da Escola Primaria, Praia da Luz

Age of man

35-40

34-35

Height of man

About 5ft 10in/1.78cm (recorded incorrectly in statement as 1.7m)

1.75-1.8m (5ft 9in – 5ft 10in)

Hair

Thick, dark, slightly longer at back of neck

Short, brown

Clothing

Beige or gold trousers wide and straight, chino-style; dark jacket

Cream or beige trousers; classic cut

Other

Carrying child across arms at front of chest; child’s head to the left of the man’s chest

Carrying child over arms with child’s head towards left shoulder

Walking hurriedly

Did not carry child in a comfortable way

Not felt to be a tourist because of the clothing worn

Not felt to be a tourist because of the clothing worn

Age of child

Young child, not a baby; assumed to be female because of clothing

Approximately four years, female; medium-blonde hair; pale skin, typically British

Clothing of the child

Pale pink and/or white pyjamas with floral pattern

Light-coloured pyjamas

Other

Barefoot

 

 

 

No blanket or covering

Witness unsure (family members say child was barefoot

 

No blanket or covering

 

 

Child Predators - The difficulty in finding a victim

Many children go missing each year, but it is becoming increasingly harder for a would-be abductor to find a vulnerable victim.  Children are less likely to engage in unobserved outdoor play or walk to school unaccompanied.  Children and parents and schools are more aware of “stranger danger” and paedophiles.  Modern technology such as DNA profiling, CCTV cameras and mobile phones increase the risk of being caught.

 

As the chances of “getting lucky” have decreased, a potential child abductor must therefore become more resourceful.

 

Holiday resorts – an ideal hunting ground for a child predator?

Advantages to a child predator:-

 

  • Easy to blend in
    • Transient population
      • Holidaymakers
        • Coming and going on a weekly basis
        • wandering about leisurely
        • at their surroundings (who would know if they were admiring a property or “casing”)
      • Seasonal staff
  • A stranger would not be noticed
  • Holiday makers would not notice anything “out of the ordinary” because they do not know what the ordinary is
  • Parents are relaxed
  • Parents feel safe within the cocoon of the resort
  • Increased consumption of alcohol lowers defences
  • Lack of local knowledge a disadvantage to potential victims (unaware of recent crimes for example)
  • Children out of school/nursery

 

History of crime in the resort of Praia da Luz

  • There had been a recent spate of burglaries including the flat above (Mrs Fenn). [1]
  • Several months previously, a babysitter in apartment 5A disturbed a man lurking in the bushes outside the apartment. [2]
  • There had also been several reported cases of men entering apartments and getting into bed with children. [3] [6]
  • Following Madeleine’s disappearance, several witnesses came forward to say they had seen a man behaving strangely around the complex. [4]

 

 

Apartment 5A

  •  Ground floor, corner flat - was vulnerable
    • At the front, mature shrubs shrouded the apartment block to third floor level
    • Front door is recessed and offset from view from the car park
    • A wall separated the pathway in front of the apartments from the car park – a crouching person would not be seen from the car park
    • The rear entrance to the apartment also had sufficient shrubbery and walling to provide screening for an intruder “waiting for his chance”
  • Lighting at the complex in was generally poor and has since been significantly upgraded

 

Taking Madeleine

How would a child predator know that there were unattended children in the apartment?

 

  •  Observation
  •  There was a note in the Tapas Bar table-booking register which indicated that the group wanted to be near their unattended, sleeping children

 

How did the abductor enter the apartment?

There are three methods of entering the apartment:-

 

Window

Madeleine’s bedroom window was open and the shutter raised but it seems unlikely that this was the entry point because:-

  • Apparent lack of forensic evidence to support this
  • Whilst the shutter can be opened and raised from the outside, the mechanism for doing so is on the inside.  When raised from the outside, the shutter does not remain up
  •  Risk of being seen

 

Front door

Requires a key.  However, police believed that the recent burglaries at the apartments were perpetrated by people with keys since there were no signs of a break-in. [5]

 

Back (patio) door

The patio door at the rear was unlocked and used by the McCanns and their friends to enter for child-checks.  There were walls and mature shrubbery which could have provided an intruder with cover so that he could make his way from the road to the apartment door unobserved (as well as hide until ready to make his move).

 

 

Where did the abductor hide whilst watching the apartment?

One possible observation point provides a view of both entrances to the apartment plus anyone returning from the Tapas Bar (see Figures 1 and 2).  This was verified by a member of our group recently.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When did the abductor enter the apartment?

If someone had been watching the group in the evenings, they would have established that there was a pattern of periodic checking on the children.  It seems likely that the safest time to enter would be immediately following one of these checks.

 

Timeline of events and checks (times are all approximate ranges) 

Time

McCanns

Friends

Abductor?

7.00-7.15

Putting children to bed

 

 

7.15- 8.30

Getting ready to go out and having a glass of wine

 

 

8.30

Check on children

 

 

 

 

 

 

Watching apartment for the group to assemble at the Tapas Bar

8.35

Arrive at Tapas Bar

Chat to Carpenter couple at another table

 

8.40

 

Jane Tanner arrives at Tapas

8.45

 

Rachel and Matt Oldfield leave their apartment for Tapas

8.50

 

Russell O’Brien arrives at Tapas

 

Matt Oldfield goes back to chase up the Paynes.  On his return, he listens outside McCann apartment reporting that all was quiet.

8.55

 

Fiona and David Payne arrive with Dianne Webster

9.00

Order food

Order food

Enters apartment via patio door and finds children’s bedroom

9.05

Gerry McCann goes to check children

 

Notes children’s bedroom door is open wider than he thought they’d left it

 

 

Uses bathroom

 

Hears Gerry McCann entering the apartment and hides:-

  •  In wardrobe
  •  Ducked down behind opaque travel cot
  •  Behind door

 

When GM goes into bathroom, intruder opens the shutters and window in preparation for a quick escape if necessary

9.10

Gerry McCann leaves apartment and meets Jez Wilkins for chat in street

 

May have attempted to leave again by patio door and walk along secluded path behind apartments but sees/hears Gerry McCann talking nearby.

 

Decides to leave by front door

 

9.15

 

Jane Tanner goes to do a check.  Sees Gerry talking to Jez.  Sees Man carrying child walking away from apartment

Walks quickly along Rue Dr Agostinho da Silva – seen by Jane Tanner

9.20

Gerry McCann returns to Tapas and explains that he has been chatting outside for a while.

 

 

Mystery period – the missing 45 minutes

 

The distance between the two sightings is 0.25 miles/0.4 km

 

The time between the two sightings is approximately 45 minutes

 

Jane Tanner saw the man walking in the opposite direction from the Smith sighting.

 

Where did he go and what did he do for 45 minutes?

9.25

 

Jane Tanner returns from her check

 

Kate McCann stands up to do her check but Matt Oldfield offers to pop in on his way past to do his check.

9.30

 

Matt Oldfield and Russell O’Brien leave Tapas together for a check.

 

Oldfield enters McCann apartment and listens but does not enter children’s bedroom although he says the bedroom door was half open.

 

On his return to the Tapas, he says that Russell O’Brien is staying with a sick child.

9.35

 

 

9.40

 

 

9.45

 

Jane Tanner returns to the apartment to let her husband go back to the Tapas and finish his meal. 

 

She remains in the apartment.

9.50

 

 

9.55

 

 

10.00

Kate McCann goes to do her check and finds Madeleine missing.

Raises the alarm.

 

Seen walking towards the beach on Rue da Escola Primaria by Smith family

 

 

 

The missing 45 minutes

Figure 3 shows the time and walking direction of the man witnessed by Jane Tanner and the Smith family.  The time difference between these two sightings is a maximum of 45 minutes according to the witness accounts, but given that times are approximations, it could be less than this and may be closer to half an hour.

 

This mysterious gap between the sightings is one reason why some people do not believe the McCann version of events.  However, there are some simple explanations.

 

 

 

 

Suggested explanations for the gap between the sightings

  • The abductor had nearby accommodation (possibly in the vicinity of the vantage point (see Figures 1&2) and took Madeleine to his house.  Thus, he could have been in the house for 20 minutes before going back out again and being seen by Smith family.
  • The abduction was unplanned (perhaps burglary was the initial objective) and the abductor sought out a quiet spot nearby in order to think/plan his next move
  • The abduction was unplanned and he called an accomplice to come and get him
  • The abductor intended to turn left and head towards the area of the Smith sighting, but saw something which changed his mind (perhaps people were in the street or walking towards him?)
  • The abductor took a convoluted route back to his car/meeting point in order to try and avoid traffic/witnesses
  • The abductor was working with an accomplice and needed to find a secluded spot to wait for instructions/pick-up or perhaps make a phone call
  • The abductor went to a secluded spot in order to carry out abuse/violence/sedation
  • The abductor was in some state of nervous excitement and had to find a quiet spot to gather his thoughts

 

 

Example of a secluded area close by

Several undeveloped and secluded areas were identified by a member of our group.  These are in the area marked off by the red border in Figure 3 above and Figure 4 below.

 

Aerial photography does not show the gradient or height of vegetation.  The photographs below are examples of the ground enclosed by the red border and indicated by the yellow circle in Figure 4.

 

Apartment 5A is indicated by the red circle:-

 

 

 

It would take 5 minutes for the abductor to walk from apartment 5A to the secluded area indicated above. 

 

It is half a mile from the secluded area to the site of the Smith sighting – approximately 15 minutes walk for a youngish man carrying a child. 

 

This leaves between 10-25 minutes unaccounted for.

 

 

 

Why risk walking through town towards the beach?

 

  • Necessity?
    • Perhaps he/accomplice lived close to there
    • Perhaps he/accomplice was parked close to there.  There are several car parking areas along the beach where either an opportunistic (but out-of-town) abductor may have parked or arranged to meet an accomplice.  If neither was local, it might make sense to meet at a central point close to the main route out of town

 

The Smith family saw him for only a brief moment as he passed.  No-one else other than Jane Tanner reported seeing the man within that 0.25 mile/0.4 km journey suggesting that he may have taken the most secluded (and possibly convoluted) route possible.  But perhaps the very last part of his journey necessitated that risky walk down Rua da Escola Primaria?

 

Theories as to why Madeleine was taken

  • By a child predator
    • Seeking a child to abuse/kill
    • Was this the man who entered apartments and got into bed with a child? (see reports of recent crime in the area above)
  • Burglary gone wrong
    • Entered the apartment intending to steal money/jewellery
      • Madeleine wakened up?
      • Decided to take a child instead?
        • For abuse
        • For ransom, but plan abandoned
  •  Child trafficking
    • We know little about this
  • Organ trafficking 
    • We know little about this either – does it even exist?

 

Why Madeleine and not a twin?

  • Being older, Madeleine had communication skills and was toilet trained
  • Perhaps the abductor was seeking a little girl and thought the twins were both boys?
  • Easier to lift Madeleine from her bed without disturbing her than to bend and lift a sleeping twin out of a travel cot
  • Madeleine, a beautiful child, was the intended target all along

 

 

Crimes which we think may be similar

 

Elizabeth Smart

Kidnapped from her bed at gunpoint.

 

Caroline Dickinson

Murdered by Francisco Arce Montez in 2001.  Montez stalked his victims - sometimes for miles - and was bold about entering holiday apartments.

 

Jennifer Schuett

Taken from bedroom, raped and throat slit, survived. She tried to scream out and he covered her mouth and nose.
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/37232072/ ... 2H8tcVmKNg

 

Dutroux victims

Potential areas for consideration:

  

  • criminal history
  • involvement of female partner (possibly passive - haven't come across details to indicate she was actively involved in abduction itself)
  • individual abductions may have been opportunistic
  • planned in the sense of having a dungeon for the purpose
  • aside from personal sexual gratification, unclear whether purpose was to sell/rent them
  • incompetent police

      

 

Danielle van Dam

Abducted from her bedroom and murdered by David Westerfield who left no forensic evidence of himself in the van Dam home.  Westerfield has never confessed his crime and although he exhibited some creepy behaviour towards his niece whilst she pretended to be asleep and was thought to be a peeping Tom, he had no prior criminal record.

 

Other Points which relate to abduction

The open window

Regarded by McCann sceptics as a “red flag” and an attempt by the McCanns to stage an intruder.

We believe there are several reasons why the window might have been opened by an abductor but not actually climbed through:-

  • As an emergency exit in case he found himself cornered by Gerry McCann (as per above theory)
  • To check whether the coast was clear since the path was not clearly visible from the recessed front door
  • To pass a child or stolen goods to an accomplice
  • As a considered exit route, but then abandoned as impractical
  • To detract from the fact that the intruder had a key – deflect attention from the person who obtained it (perhaps a member of staff)
  • To allow the smell of a sedating chemical to dissipate more quickly.

 

Was Madeleine sedated?

Kate McCann has described how deeply asleep the twins were and has speculated on whether the children could have been sedated.

 

Challenge of sedating

An un-sedated child might stay asleep for a period of time, but there is a risk of her waking up in the chilly night air.

 

  • How would an abductor sedate an already sleeping victim?  
  • Sedatives which are ingested orally would require time to take effect

 

Methods of sedating quickly

  • Suspect Raymond Hewlett subdued his victims with paint stripper.  Hewlett is now deceased but his name came up in the McCann case.
  • Chloroform can be made from readily available household chemicals

 


Arguments against these re McCann

Unless the smell dissipated quickly (perhaps via the open window), there was no suggestion of there being a smell of chemicals in the room


Alternative Suggestion

A sleepy child might be submissive if told she is being taken to her Mummy.  She might then be taken to a secluded spot and sedated.

 

 

Additional photos of resort

One of our members has taken many photos of the resort showing narrow alleys and possible hiding places between the McCann apartment and the site of the Smith sighting.

Examples can be found at http://espacioexterior.blogspot.co.uk/ and can be viewed as a slideshow.

 

 

Endnotes


[1] Madeleine: Portuguese police to re-examine burglaries at resort”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-476064/Madeleine-Portuguese-police-examine-burglaries-resort.html

[2] Confidential report re Margaret Hall - http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARGARET_HALL.htm

[3] “Madeleine” by Kate McCann Hardback p 89

[4] Documentary “Madeleine was here” - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhACS6ck-Dw

[5] Police believe burglars had a key - http://www.mccannfiles.com/id331.html

[6] Telegraph 9th May 2011 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/madeleinemccann/8503610/Kate-McCann-why-didnt-they-believe-her.html

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